核心觀點(diǎn)：

　　Core viewpoint:

　　2025-2026年是人形機(jī)器人量產(chǎn)元年，絲杠作為占整機(jī)成本19%的核心傳動(dòng)部件，正迎來(lái)從"0到1"的突破。特斯拉Optimus明確采用14個(gè)行星滾柱絲杠的方案，定義了主流技術(shù)路徑，國(guó)產(chǎn)替代空間巨大。01主題界定與核心驅(qū)動(dòng)力

　　2025-2026 is the first year of mass production for humanoid robots, and the screw, as the core transmission component that accounts for 19% of the overall cost, is experiencing a breakthrough from "0 to 1". The Tesla Optimus clearly adopts a solution of 14 planetary roller screws, defining the mainstream technology path, and there is huge room for domestic substitution. 01 Theme Definition and Core Driving Forces

　　主題定義本報(bào)告聚焦的"人形機(jī)器人絲杠環(huán)節(jié)"，是指為人形機(jī)器人提供核心直線傳動(dòng)功能，將旋轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)動(dòng)精確轉(zhuǎn)化為線性運(yùn)動(dòng)的精密機(jī)械部件及其上下游產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈。核心邊界：以行星滾柱絲杠（用于軀干主關(guān)節(jié)）和微型滾珠絲杠（用于靈巧手）為主，涵蓋從特種鋼材、精密加工設(shè)備到絲杠成品制造的全過(guò)程。

　　The theme definition of this report focuses on the "humanoid robot screw link", which refers to the precision mechanical components and their upstream and downstream industrial chains that provide core linear transmission functions for humanoid robots, accurately converting rotational motion into linear motion. Core boundary: Mainly using planetary roller screws (for trunk main joints) and micro ball screws (for dexterous hands), covering the entire process from special steel, precision machining equipment to finished screw manufacturing.

　　三大核心驅(qū)動(dòng)力

　　Three core driving forces

　　① 技術(shù)突破與產(chǎn)品定義以特斯拉Optimus為代表的龍頭產(chǎn)品，明確將行星滾柱絲杠作為線性執(zhí)行器的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)解決方案。AI大模型在運(yùn)動(dòng)控制上的快速迭代，顯著提升了機(jī)器人本體的運(yùn)動(dòng)能力與智能化水平。

　　① Technological breakthroughs and product definitions are represented by Tesla Optimus, a leading product that explicitly uses planetary roller screws as the standard solution for linear actuators. The rapid iteration of AI models in motion control has significantly improved the motion capability and intelligence level of the robot body.

　　② 重大產(chǎn)業(yè)與成本拐點(diǎn)臨近2025-2026年被廣泛視為量產(chǎn)元年。特斯拉、小鵬、優(yōu)必選等整機(jī)廠商明確了量產(chǎn)時(shí)間表，需求將從"臺(tái)"級(jí)躍升"萬(wàn)臺(tái)"乃"百萬(wàn)臺(tái)"級(jí)。規(guī)模化將推動(dòng)工藝從磨削向"以車代磨"、旋風(fēng)銑等工藝演進(jìn)，帶來(lái)顯著降本空間。

　　② Major industries and cost inflection points are approaching, and 2025-2026 is widely regarded as the first year of mass production. Tesla, Xiaopeng, Ubiquitous and other whole machine manufacturers have clarified their production schedules, and demand will jump from the "unit" level to the "tens of thousands" or even "millions" level. Scale up will promote the evolution of processes from grinding to efficient processes such as "replacing grinding with vehicles" and whirlwind milling, bringing significant cost reduction opportunities.

　　③ 強(qiáng)力政策與自主可控需求工業(yè)母機(jī)及高端裝備的自主可控是戰(zhàn)略方向。絲杠作為數(shù)控機(jī)床的核心部件，其高端市場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)期被外資壟斷。在政策推動(dòng)下，國(guó)產(chǎn)化替代與在人形機(jī)器人賽道上的彎道超車形成強(qiáng)大合力。02產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈解構(gòu)與技術(shù)路徑圖 產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈三級(jí)梯隊(duì)上游材料與設(shè)備高性能合金鋼（如軸承鋼）：熱處理工藝直接影響絲杠壽命與承載能力

　　③ Strong policies and independent controllable demand for industrial mother machines and high-end equipment are national strategic directions. As the core component of CNC machine tools, the screw has long been monopolized by foreign investment in its high-end market. Under policy promotion, domestic substitution and overtaking on the curve of the humanoid robot race have formed a strong synergy. 02 Industrial Chain Deconstruction and Technology Roadmap: Upstream Materials and Equipment High Performance Alloy Steel (such as Bearing Steel) in the Third Tier of the Industrial Chain: Heat Treatment Process Directly Affects the Life and Load Capacity of the Screw

　　高精度加工設(shè)備：高端磨床、旋風(fēng)銑床、數(shù)控車床，目前仍依賴進(jìn)口▼中游 ★核心絲杠制造行星滾柱絲杠：用于軀干主關(guān)節(jié)，技術(shù)壁壘

　　High precision machining equipment: high-end grinding machines, cyclone milling machines, CNC lathes, currently still relying on imports ▼ midstream ★ core screw manufacturing planetary roller screws: used for trunk main joints, with the highest technical barrier

　　微型滾珠絲杠：用于靈巧手，精度要求極高

　　Micro ball screw: used for dexterous hands, with extremely high precision requirements

　　集中了材料學(xué)、精密加工、熱處理、檢測(cè)等綜合技術(shù)壁壘▼下游集成與應(yīng)用絲杠與電機(jī)、傳感器、軸承等集成形成線性執(zhí)行器模組，終裝配于人形機(jī)器人本體，應(yīng)用于工業(yè)制造、商業(yè)服務(wù)、家庭護(hù)理等場(chǎng)景。 四大加工工藝路徑對(duì)比 磨削工藝當(dāng)前主流特點(diǎn)：使用砂輪進(jìn)行精加工

　　Integrating materials science, precision machining, heat treatment, testing and other comprehensive technical barriers, downstream integration and application of screw and motor, sensor, bearing and other components to form linear actuator modules, which are ultimately assembled into humanoid robot bodies and applied in industrial manufacturing, commercial services, home care and other scenarios. Comparison of four major machining process paths: The current mainstream feature of grinding technology is the use of grinding wheels for precision machining

　　優(yōu)勢(shì)：精度，可達(dá)P0/P1級(jí)，表面質(zhì)量好

　　Advantages: Highest accuracy, up to P0/P1 level, good surface quality

　　劣勢(shì)：效率低，設(shè)備投資大（進(jìn)口磨床上千萬(wàn)），砂輪耗材成本高

　　Disadvantages: Low efficiency, large equipment investment (tens of millions of imported grinding machines), high cost of grinding wheel consumables

　　階段：高精度絲杠，已成熟應(yīng)用 旋風(fēng)銑快速崛起特點(diǎn)：采用旋轉(zhuǎn)刀具進(jìn)行銑削

　　Stage: High precision lead screw preferred, mature application, rapid rise of whirlwind milling features: using rotary cutting tools for milling

　　優(yōu)勢(shì)：效率較高，精度與效率平衡性好

　　Advantages: High efficiency, good balance between accuracy and efficiency

　　劣勢(shì)：高端多軸設(shè)備依賴進(jìn)口，刀具設(shè)計(jì)有門檻

　　Disadvantage: High end multi axis equipment relies on imports, and there are thresholds for tool design

　　階段：降本提效的重要方向 硬車（以車代磨）技術(shù)突破期特點(diǎn)：用超硬刀具進(jìn)行車削

　　Stage: An important direction for cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Hard turning (replacing grinding with turning) technology breakthrough stage. Characteristics: Using superhard cutting tools for turning

　　優(yōu)勢(shì)：加工效率高（約為磨削的2-3倍），設(shè)備成本相對(duì)較低

　　Advantages: High processing efficiency (about 2-3 times that of grinding), relatively low equipment cost

　　劣勢(shì)：對(duì)刀具剛性、機(jī)床穩(wěn)定性要求極高，工藝成熟度待提升

　　Disadvantage: The requirements for tool rigidity and machine stability are extremely high, and the process maturity needs to be improved

　　階段：國(guó)內(nèi)多家廠商研發(fā) 軋制大批量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)件特點(diǎn)：通過(guò)塑性變形成型螺紋

　　Stage: Multiple domestic manufacturers focus on developing and rolling large quantities of standard parts. Characteristics: forming threads through plastic deformation

　　優(yōu)勢(shì)：效率極高，材料利用率高，成本低

　　Advantages: extremely high efficiency, high material utilization rate, low cost

　　劣勢(shì)：精度較低，難以滿足機(jī)器人關(guān)節(jié)的高要求

　　Disadvantage: Low accuracy, difficult to meet the high requirements of robot joints

　　階段：適用于中低精度、大批量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)件 未來(lái)趨勢(shì)："磨削保證精度+車/銑提升效率"的混合工藝或?qū)⒊蔀橹髁鳌６唐趦?nèi)掌握磨削工藝的企業(yè)具備量產(chǎn)交付能力；中長(zhǎng)期看，在旋風(fēng)銑或硬車工藝上實(shí)現(xiàn)高精度、高穩(wěn)定量產(chǎn)的企業(yè)將贏得成本優(yōu)勢(shì)。 價(jià)值鏈識(shí)別核心環(huán)節(jié)（高附加值、高技術(shù)壁壘）：中游的絲杠制造，特別是行星滾柱絲杠的螺紋精密加工。其價(jià)值凝聚了材料、設(shè)備、工藝Know-how和檢測(cè)技術(shù)，毛利率潛力。關(guān)鍵瓶頸環(huán)節(jié)（短期供給剛性）：上游的高端加工設(shè)備（如高端磨床）和高質(zhì)量原材料。設(shè)備的交貨周期和材料的性能穩(wěn)定性，是制約絲杠產(chǎn)能快速擴(kuò)張和性能一致性的關(guān)鍵瓶頸。03價(jià)值量分布與動(dòng)態(tài)演變分析 靜態(tài)價(jià)值分布152.6億2030年全球市場(chǎng)規(guī)模（美元）

　　Stage: Suitable for medium to low precision and large-scale standard parts. Future trend: The hybrid process of "grinding ensures accuracy+turning/milling improves efficiency" may become mainstream. Enterprises that have mastered grinding technology in the short term have the ability to mass produce and deliver; In the medium to long term, enterprises that achieve high-precision and high stability mass production in whirlwind milling or hard turning processes will win cost advantages. The core link of value chain identification (high added value, high technological barriers): midstream screw manufacturing, especially precision machining of planetary roller screw threads. Its value embodies materials, equipment, process know-how, and testing technology, with the highest gross profit margin potential. Key bottleneck link (short-term supply rigidity): Upstream high-end processing equipment (such as high-end grinding machines) and high-quality raw materials. The delivery cycle of equipment and the stability of material performance are key bottlenecks that restrict the rapid expansion of screw production capacity and performance consistency. 03 Value Distribution and Dynamic Evolution Analysis Static Value Distribution 15.26 billion Global Market Size in 2030 (USD)

　　19%絲杠價(jià)值量占比

　　19% of screw value proportion

　　500億+2030年絲杠市場(chǎng)規(guī)模（人民幣）市場(chǎng)規(guī)模：據(jù)Markets and Markets預(yù)測(cè)，2030年全球人形機(jī)器人市場(chǎng)規(guī)模約152.6億美元。絲杠作為價(jià)值量占比約19%的核心部件，多家機(jī)構(gòu)測(cè)算2030年僅人形機(jī)器人帶來(lái)的行星滾柱絲杠市場(chǎng)規(guī)模有望達(dá)到數(shù)百億元人民幣級(jí)別（東吳證券測(cè)算超450億元，中信建投測(cè)算超500億元），較傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)市場(chǎng)呈幾何級(jí)數(shù)增長(zhǎng)。 毛利率區(qū)間：由于當(dāng)前處于產(chǎn)業(yè)化早期，具備量產(chǎn)能力的廠商少，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局好，預(yù)計(jì)絲杠產(chǎn)品特別是行星滾柱絲杠的毛利率處于較高水平。參考精密傳動(dòng)行業(yè)，規(guī)模化量產(chǎn)初期毛利率可達(dá)40%-50%甚更高。隨著后續(xù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇和工藝優(yōu)化，毛利率將逐步回落并穩(wěn)定在合理區(qū)間。 動(dòng)態(tài)價(jià)值遷移四大趨勢(shì)1技術(shù)迭代催生新價(jià)值環(huán)節(jié)若"以車代磨"或"旋風(fēng)銑"工藝在高精度絲杠加工上取得突破并成為主流，那么高性能超硬刀具、高端數(shù)控車床及旋風(fēng)銑設(shè)備的價(jià)值和需求將大幅提升，相關(guān)設(shè)備與耗材供應(yīng)商將受益。

　　50 billion+2030 screw market size (RMB) market size: According to Markets and Markets' forecast, the global humanoid robot market size will be approximately 15.26 billion US dollars by 2030. As a core component that accounts for about 19% of the value, the screw is expected to reach a market size of tens of billions of yuan in planetary roller screws brought by humanoid robots alone by 2030, according to multiple institutions (estimated by Dongwu Securities to exceed 45 billion yuan and CITIC Securities to exceed 50 billion yuan), showing geometric growth compared to the traditional industrial market. Gross profit margin range: Due to the current early stage of industrialization, there are few manufacturers with mass production capabilities, and the competitive landscape is good, it is expected that the gross profit margin of screw products, especially planetary roller screws, will be at a relatively high level. Referring to the precision transmission industry, the initial gross profit margin for large-scale production can reach 40% -50% or even higher. With the intensification of competition and process optimization in the future, the gross profit margin will gradually decline and stabilize within a reasonable range. The four major trends of dynamic value transfer are: 1. Technological iteration generates new value links. If the "car instead of grinding" or "whirlwind milling" processes make breakthroughs in high-precision screw machining and become mainstream, the value and demand for high-performance superhard cutting tools, high-end CNC lathes, and whirlwind milling equipment will be greatly increased, and related equipment and consumables suppliers will benefit.

　　2產(chǎn)業(yè)化進(jìn)程中的需求彈性導(dǎo)入期：高精度加工設(shè)備需求迫切；

　　The introduction period of demand elasticity in the industrialization process: the urgent demand for high-precision processing equipment;

　　放量期：具備大規(guī)模、一致性生產(chǎn)能力的絲杠制造商以及PEEK等輕量化材料供應(yīng)商將迎來(lái)巨大彈性。

　　High volume period: Screw manufacturers with large-scale and consistent production capabilities, as well as lightweight material suppliers such as PEEK, will experience tremendous flexibility.

　　3供需格局與階段性溢價(jià)

　　3 Supply and demand patterns and phased premiums

　　在需求突然爆發(fā)時(shí)，螺紋磨床等高端設(shè)備因其交付周期長(zhǎng)（通常1年以上），將成為緊俏的瓶頸資源，設(shè)備廠商及已提前鎖定設(shè)備產(chǎn)能的絲杠企業(yè)將獲得階段性溢價(jià)。4國(guó)產(chǎn)替代實(shí)現(xiàn)價(jià)值轉(zhuǎn)移在行星滾柱絲杠這一被Rollvis、GSA等歐洲企業(yè)壟斷（2022年CR4約78%）的"卡脖子"環(huán)節(jié)，國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)一旦實(shí)現(xiàn)技術(shù)突破和批量供貨，將直接承接巨大的價(jià)值轉(zhuǎn)移。國(guó)產(chǎn)化率每提升一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，都意味著數(shù)億乃數(shù)十億元的市場(chǎng)份額重新分配。

　　When demand suddenly erupts, high-end equipment such as thread grinders will become the most scarce bottleneck resource due to their long delivery cycle (usually over 1 year). Equipment manufacturers and screw enterprises that have already locked in equipment production capacity in advance will receive a phased premium. In the "bottleneck" link of planetary roller screw, which is monopolized by European companies such as Rollvis and GSA (with a CR4 of about 78% in 2022), domestic enterprises will directly undertake huge value transfer once they achieve technological breakthroughs and bulk supply. Every one percentage point increase in localization rate means a redistribution of market share worth billions or even billions of yuan.

　　04核心公司深度梳理與定位

　　04 In depth sorting and positioning of core companies

　　四大類核心公司聚合分析系統(tǒng)定義與關(guān)鍵突圍者代表公司：秦川機(jī)床、恒立液壓特征：深度綁定龍頭客戶或技術(shù)，有望定義行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)

　　Definition and Key Breakthroughs of Aggregation Analysis System for Four Major Core Companies Representative Companies: Qinchuan Machine Tool, Hengli Hydraulic Features: Deeply bound to leading customers or technology leaders, expected to define industry standards

　　彈性邏輯：彈性。秦川作為國(guó)內(nèi)宣稱量產(chǎn)行星滾柱絲杠的國(guó)企，技術(shù)卡位獨(dú)特；恒立液壓憑借液壓領(lǐng)域積累的精密制造與客戶優(yōu)勢(shì)，大規(guī)模資本投入線性驅(qū)動(dòng)器，確定性較強(qiáng)。特色工藝與型供應(yīng)商代表公司：雙林股份（收購(gòu)無(wú)錫科之鑫）、貝斯特、五洲新春、北特科技、震裕科技、嶸泰股份特征：在特定工藝路徑（如旋風(fēng)銑、硬車）或上游關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)（設(shè)備、材料）具備深厚積累

　　Elastic logic: The highest elasticity. As the only state-owned enterprise in China that claims to mass produce planetary roller screws, Qinchuan has a unique technical positioning; Hengli Hydraulic relies on its accumulated precision manufacturing and customer advantages in the hydraulic field, with large-scale capital investment in linear drives and strong certainty. Representative companies for characteristic processes and expert suppliers: Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (acquired Wuxi Kezhixin), Best, Wuzhou Xinchun, Beite Technology, Zhenyu Technology, Rongtai Co., Ltd. Features: has a deep accumulation in specific process paths (such as whirlwind milling, hard turning) or upstream key links (equipment, materials)

　　彈性邏輯：彈性大，取決于技術(shù)路徑驗(yàn)證。雙林通過(guò)收購(gòu)掌握反向絲杠磨床技術(shù)，具備"設(shè)備+產(chǎn)品"協(xié)同優(yōu)勢(shì)。貝斯特、五洲新春從汽車零部件延伸，工藝同源，具備成本和規(guī)模化潛力。產(chǎn)能快速布局與生態(tài)賦能者代表公司：南方精工、力星股份特征：通過(guò)資本運(yùn)作或快速擴(kuò)產(chǎn)搶占賽道，或?yàn)樯鷳B(tài)內(nèi)核心廠商提供支撐

　　Elastic logic: The elasticity is large and depends on the verification of the technical path. Shuanglin has acquired the technology of reverse screw grinding machine through acquisition, possessing the synergistic advantage of "equipment+product". Best and Wuzhou New Year extend from automotive parts, with the same technology and potential for cost and scale. Representative companies for rapid production capacity layout and ecological empowerment: Southern Precision Industry and Lixing Co., Ltd. Characteristics: Seize the track through capital operation or rapid expansion of production, or provide support for core manufacturers within the ecosystem

　　彈性邏輯：高彈性，但需驗(yàn)證。此類公司擴(kuò)產(chǎn)激進(jìn)（如北特科技投資18.5億建基地），若產(chǎn)能消化順利則彈性巨大，反之則有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。其成功高度依賴下游客戶定點(diǎn)進(jìn)展。產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈配套與隱形特征：專注于絲杠上游的軸承、滾動(dòng)體、精密結(jié)構(gòu)件等細(xì)分領(lǐng)域

　　Elastic logic: High elasticity, but requires verification. Such companies are aggressively expanding their production (such as Beite Technology investing 1.85 billion yuan to build a base). If the capacity digestion is smooth, there will be huge flexibility, otherwise there will be risks. Its success is highly dependent on the targeted progress of downstream customers. Industrial chain matching and hidden champion features: Focusing on segmented fields such as bearings, rolling elements, precision structural components, etc. upstream of the screw

　　彈性邏輯：確定性較高，彈性中等。作為"賣鏟人"，受益于行業(yè)整體擴(kuò)容，需求波動(dòng)小于整機(jī)制造商，但單車價(jià)值量相對(duì)較低。 上市公司深度對(duì)比秦川機(jī)床000837.SZ產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈環(huán)節(jié)：中游：行星滾柱絲杠、RV減速器技術(shù)路徑：自研P0級(jí)磨床，掌握核心磨削工藝；國(guó)內(nèi)量產(chǎn)行星滾柱絲杠報(bào)道核心客戶：適配特斯拉Optimus、華為機(jī)器人；軍工領(lǐng)域高市占率投資邏輯：稀缺的"設(shè)備+工藝+產(chǎn)品"全鏈條隊(duì)，技術(shù)卡位。

　　Elastic logic: high certainty, moderate elasticity. As a 'shovel seller', benefiting from the overall expansion of the industry, demand fluctuations are smaller than those of whole machine manufacturers, but the value of individual vehicles is relatively low. In depth comparison of key listed companies in Qinchuan Machine Tool 000837. SZ industry chain links: midstream: planetary roller screw, RV reducer technology path: self-developed P0 level grinder, master the core grinding process; The only domestically produced planetary roller screw reported core customers: compatible with Tesla Optimus and Huawei robots; The investment logic of high market share in the military industry field: the scarce "equipment+process+product" full chain national team has the best technical position.

　　催化劑：獲特斯拉等頭部客戶正式定點(diǎn)；軍工訂單持續(xù)高增。恒立液壓601100.SH產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈環(huán)節(jié)：中游：線性執(zhí)行器、行星滾柱絲杠、滾珠絲杠技術(shù)路徑：投資15.27億布局線性驅(qū)動(dòng)器；依托液壓精密制造基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行工藝遷移核心客戶：全球工程機(jī)械龍頭客戶，有望平移機(jī)器人客戶投資邏輯：精密制造巨人跨界，管理、資本、客戶優(yōu)勢(shì)顯著，成功概率高。

　　Catalyst: officially designated by top customers such as Tesla; Military orders continue to increase rapidly. Hengli Hydraulic 601100. SH Industry Chain Link: Midstream: Linear actuators, planetary roller screws, ball screws Technology Path: Investment of 1.527 billion yuan to layout linear drives; Based on the foundation of hydraulic precision manufacturing, the core customer for process migration is a global leading engineering machinery customer, which is expected to shift to a robot customer. Investment logic: a precision manufacturing giant crossing boundaries, with significant advantages in management, capital, and customers, and a high probability of success.

　　催化劑：線性執(zhí)行器樣品獲大客戶認(rèn)可并下達(dá)試制訂單。雙林股份300100.SZ產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈環(huán)節(jié)：中游：行星滾柱絲杠；上游：磨床設(shè)備（無(wú)錫科之鑫）技術(shù)路徑：通過(guò)收購(gòu)切入，掌握反向式行星滾柱絲杠磨床量產(chǎn)能力核心客戶：已向國(guó)內(nèi)外頭部機(jī)器人客戶送樣/交付；供應(yīng)宇樹(shù)科技投資邏輯："自主設(shè)備+核心部件"模式，具備供應(yīng)鏈性和成本優(yōu)勢(shì)。磨床成本降300萬(wàn)/臺(tái)，交付周期縮短75%。

　　Catalyst: The linear actuator sample has been recognized by a major customer and a trial production order has been placed. Shuanglin Stock 300100.SZ Industry Chain Link: Midstream: Planetary Roller Screw; Upstream: Grinding Machine Equipment (Wuxi Kezhixin) Technical Path: Through acquisition, we have mastered the mass production capability of reverse planetary roller screw grinding machines. Core Customers: We have already sent samples/deliveries to domestic and foreign head robot customers; Exclusive supply of Yushu Technology investment logic: "Independent equipment+core components" model, with supply chain security and cost advantages. The cost of grinding machines has been reduced to 3 million yuan per unit, and the delivery cycle has been shortened by 75%.

　　催化劑：自研絲杠通過(guò)客戶驗(yàn)證并獲取量產(chǎn)訂單。五洲新春603667.SH產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈環(huán)節(jié)：中游：行星滾柱絲杠、軸承技術(shù)路徑：基于現(xiàn)有精密加工產(chǎn)能進(jìn)行柔性拓展；絲杠已獲機(jī)床廠商批量訂單核心客戶：通過(guò)杭州新劍傳動(dòng)成為特斯拉Optimus核心供應(yīng)商；定增擴(kuò)產(chǎn)98萬(wàn)套絲杠產(chǎn)能投資邏輯：絲杠+軸承雙核心，特斯拉量產(chǎn)供應(yīng)商，定增擴(kuò)產(chǎn)兌現(xiàn)彈性。

　　Catalyst: Our self-developed screw has been validated by customers and has obtained mass production orders. Wuzhou New Year 603667. SH Industry Chain Link: Midstream: Planetary Roller Screw, Bearing Technology Path: Flexible Expansion Based on Existing Precision Machining Capacity; The lead screw has obtained bulk orders from machine tool manufacturers and has become a core customer of Tesla Optimus through Hangzhou Xinjian Transmission; The investment logic for expanding the production capacity of 980000 sets of screws through private placement: dual core screws and bearings, Tesla mass production supplier, flexible realization of private placement expansion.

　　進(jìn)展：2024年三季度供貨量已達(dá)3000多根/月，預(yù)計(jì)2026年可覆蓋特斯拉60%以上絲杠需求。貝斯特300580.SZ產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈環(huán)節(jié)：中游：行星滾柱絲杠、滾動(dòng)導(dǎo)軌技術(shù)路徑：從汽車渦輪增壓器精密軸承件工藝延伸核心客戶：已取得機(jī)床廠商批量交付訂單；機(jī)器人客戶持續(xù)推進(jìn)中投資邏輯：汽車精密制造，工藝同源，具備強(qiáng)成本控制和批量交付能力。

　　Latest progress: The supply volume in the third quarter of 2024 has reached over 3000 units per month, and it is expected to cover more than 60% of Tesla's screw demand by 2026. Best 300580.SZ Industry Chain Link: Midstream: Planetary Roller Screw, Rolling Guide Technology Path: Extending from Precision Bearing Parts Process of Automotive Turbochargers Core Customers: Obtained Batch Delivery Orders from Machine Tool Manufacturers; Robot customers continue to promote investment logic: automotive precision manufacturing experts, process homogeneity, strong cost control and batch delivery capabilities.

　　催化劑：公告獲得知名機(jī)器人公司絲杠量產(chǎn)定點(diǎn)。北特科技603009.SH產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈環(huán)節(jié)：中游：行星滾柱絲杠技術(shù)路徑：通過(guò)合資與合作切入，投資18.5億元建設(shè)研發(fā)生產(chǎn)基地產(chǎn)能規(guī)劃：規(guī)劃宏大，但產(chǎn)能建設(shè)與爬坡需要時(shí)間投資邏輯：激進(jìn)布局者，若產(chǎn)能順利落地且獲客成功，彈性巨大。

　　Catalyst: Announced as designated for mass production of lead screws by a well-known robot company. Beite Technology 603009. SH Industry Chain Link: Midstream: Planetary Roller Screw Technology Path: Through joint ventures and cooperation, invest 1.85 billion yuan to build a research and development production base Capacity Planning: The plan is grand, but capacity construction and climbing require time Investment Logic: For radical layout, if the capacity is successfully implemented and customer acquisition is successful, the flexibility is huge.

　　催化劑：生產(chǎn)基地建設(shè)超預(yù)期；與某頭部廠商簽訂戰(zhàn)略合作框架協(xié)議。產(chǎn)業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)（2025-2026） 特斯拉Optimus量產(chǎn)特斯拉Optimus V3預(yù)計(jì)2026年Q1正式量產(chǎn)，年底實(shí)現(xiàn)V3量產(chǎn)。新劍傳動(dòng)作為一級(jí)供應(yīng)商，年產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)臺(tái)機(jī)器人絲杠項(xiàng)目一期年底竣工。

　　Catalyst: Production base construction exceeds expectations; Signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with a leading manufacturer. Latest Industry Trends (2025-2026) Tesla Optimus Countdown to Mass Production Tesla Optimus V3 is expected to officially start production in Q1 2026 and achieve V3 mass production by the end of the year. As a first tier supplier, Xinjian Transmission's first phase of the 1 million robot screw project with an annual output will be completed by the end of the year.

　　五洲新春通過(guò)新劍傳動(dòng)間接供應(yīng)特斯拉，2024年三季度供貨量已達(dá)3000多根/月。 國(guó)產(chǎn)設(shè)備突破雙林股份通過(guò)收購(gòu)科之鑫，將反向式行星滾柱絲杠磨床成本從降300萬(wàn)元/臺(tái)，加工時(shí)間從45分鐘壓縮12分鐘。恒而達(dá)收購(gòu)德國(guó)SMS Maschinenbau GmbH，直接獲取螺紋磨削核心工藝。 成本快速下降夏廈精密通過(guò)越南、寧波雙基地布局，將反向式行星滾柱絲杠成本壓降千元級(jí)。國(guó)產(chǎn)絲杠憑借成本優(yōu)勢(shì)，將單品從2000元壓1400元以下，較外資產(chǎn)品低30%-40%。

　　Wuzhou New Year indirectly supplies Tesla through New Sword Transmission, with a monthly supply of over 3000 units in the third quarter of 2024. Domestic equipment breakthrough Shuanglin Co., Ltd. has reduced the cost of reverse planetary roller screw grinding machines from tens of millions to 3 million yuan per unit through the acquisition of Kezhixin, and the processing time has been compressed from 45 minutes to 12 minutes. Hengerda acquires SMS Maschinenbau GmbH from Germany and directly obtains the core thread grinding process. The rapid cost reduction of Xiaxia Precision has reduced the cost of reverse planetary roller screw to the level of thousands of yuan through the layout of dual bases in Vietnam and Ningbo. Domestic screw rods, with their cost advantage, have lowered the single product price from 2000 yuan to below 1400 yuan, which is 30% -40% lower than foreign products.

　　05綜合研判與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示

　　05 Comprehensive analysis and risk warning

　　投資時(shí)鐘與階段判斷綜合來(lái)看，人形機(jī)器人絲杠產(chǎn)業(yè)正處從概念導(dǎo)入期向成長(zhǎng)初期過(guò)渡的關(guān)鍵階段。其特征是：技術(shù)路線初步明確但工藝仍在優(yōu)化，龍頭產(chǎn)品已定義需求，多家企業(yè)完成樣品送樣，少數(shù)企業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)小批量供貨，大規(guī)模量產(chǎn)訂單即將落地。

　　From the perspective of investment clock and stage judgment, the humanoid robot screw industry is currently in a critical stage of transition from the concept introduction period to the early growth stage. Its characteristics are: the technical route is initially clear but the process is still being optimized, the requirements for leading products have been defined, multiple companies have completed sample delivery, a few companies have achieved small batch supply, and large-scale production orders are about to land.

　　這是投資產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈核心環(huán)節(jié)的"左側(cè)布局期"。 標(biāo)的排序基于"確定性優(yōu)先，兼顧彈性"原則

　　This is the best 'left side layout period' for investing in the core links of the industrial chain. The recommended ranking of targets is based on the principle of "giving priority to certainty while considering flexibility"

　　恒立液壓、秦川機(jī)床邏輯：前者具備從成功產(chǎn)業(yè)向更精密產(chǎn)業(yè)擴(kuò)展的極高確定性和綜合優(yōu)勢(shì)；后者具備稀缺的技術(shù)與產(chǎn)品卡位，且背靠國(guó)資，資源整合能力強(qiáng)。

　　Preferred options are Hengli Hydraulic and Qinchuan Machine Tool Logic: The former has a high degree of certainty and comprehensive advantages in expanding from a successful industry to a more precise industry; The latter has the most scarce technology and product positions, and is backed by state-owned assets with strong resource integration capabilities.

　　次選雙林股份、貝斯特、五洲新春邏輯：雙林"設(shè)備+部件"的垂直整合模式在量產(chǎn)階段潛力巨大；貝斯特勝在工藝穩(wěn)健、客戶基礎(chǔ)好；五洲新春已通過(guò)新劍傳動(dòng)切入特斯拉供應(yīng)鏈，定增擴(kuò)產(chǎn)彈性大。

　　The second choice is Shuanglin Co., Ltd., Best, and Wuzhou New Year's logic: Shuanglin's vertical integration mode of "equipment+components" has great potential in the mass production stage; Bestsheng has stable craftsmanship and a good customer base; Wuzhou New Year has entered Tesla's supply chain through New Sword Transmission, with great flexibility in expanding production through private placement.

　　跟蹤震裕科技、北特科技、浙江榮泰邏輯：這些公司布局明確且積極，需密切跟蹤其客戶定點(diǎn)進(jìn)展、產(chǎn)能落地情況及量產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品的良率與成本數(shù)據(jù)，以驗(yàn)證其邏輯。浙江榮泰是特斯拉靈巧手微型滾珠絲杠核心供應(yīng)商。關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示技術(shù)路線迭代風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特斯拉等龍頭公司未來(lái)可能因技術(shù)突破（如磁懸浮關(guān)節(jié)）而改變執(zhí)行器方案，導(dǎo)致對(duì)絲杠的需求減弱或消失。

　　Tracking Zhenyu Technology, Beite Technology, and Zhejiang Rongtai Logic: These companies have clear and proactive layouts, and need to closely track their customers' progress, production capacity implementation, and yield and cost data of mass-produced products to verify their logic. Zhejiang Rongtai is the core supplier of Tesla's dexterous hand micro ball screw. Key Risk Warning: Technological Route Iteration Risks. Leading companies such as Tesla may change their actuator solutions in the future due to technological breakthroughs (such as magnetic levitation joints), leading to a decrease or disappearance in demand for lead screws.

　　產(chǎn)業(yè)化進(jìn)度不及預(yù)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)人形機(jī)器人的量產(chǎn)涉及復(fù)雜的技術(shù)、成本和問(wèn)題，若整機(jī)量產(chǎn)進(jìn)度大幅推遲，將導(dǎo)致上游絲杠"需求失速"。競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇與盈利風(fēng)險(xiǎn)當(dāng)前的高毛利率具有階段性。

　　The industrialization progress is slower than expected, and the mass production of humanoid robots involves complex technical, cost, and safety issues. If the overall mass production progress is significantly delayed, it will lead to a "demand stall" for upstream screw rods. The current high gross profit margin due to intensified competition and profit risks is phased.

　　一旦國(guó)產(chǎn)化突破，大量資本涌入可能導(dǎo)致行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)急劇惡化，引發(fā)戰(zhàn)，侵蝕企業(yè)盈利能力。供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸與成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高端加工設(shè)備、特種鋼材的供應(yīng)緊張和上漲，可能制約企業(yè)擴(kuò)產(chǎn)速度并抬高成本，影響交付和利潤(rùn)。

　　Once localization breaks through, a large influx of capital may lead to a sharp deterioration of industry competition, trigger price wars, and erode corporate profitability. Supply chain bottlenecks and cost risks. The tight supply and rising prices of high-end processing equipment and special steel may constrain the expansion speed of enterprises and increase costs, affecting delivery and profits.